Face It: Omar Knows What He's Doing

By Mike McGann
Posted Wednesday, January 17, 2007

It’s a month before pitchers and catchers but largely the work of baseball’s front offices is done. Of course, there will be a handful of late signings, some invites to spring training for guys kind of on the fringe, hoping to make a comeback and so on, but the basic construction work is done, now.

Mets fans, and maybe even some local writers, have to come to grips with the idea that what you see is what you get. An explosive offense. A wickedly deep bullpen. A shaky starting rotation that could literally be anything from awful to marvelous. A year ago, almost all of the same things could be said about the Mets and we all know how that worked out.

As I pointed out a couple of weeks ago, signing Barry Zito would have been nice, but only if the price hadn’t been stupid. The Giants went somewhere beyond stupid and wildly overpaid for a guy with declining numbers and a guy who probably won’t be their ace. So be it. Despite pronouncements elsewhere, it’s not exactly the end of the world. While the Chicken Littles and Boy Who Cried Wolf types wail in agony around the blogosphere or other Internet low-rent districts, there’s no need for Mets’ fans to be very worried.

As has become the case with bullpens, starting pitchers for the most part have become year-to-year guys. And the Mets certainly make up for perceived lack of quality with quantity. The bottom line: they have more than enough arms to win at least 95 games again and win the NL East again. In fact, since they don’t start 2007 depending on the likes of Victor Zambrano and Steve Trachsel, one could argue they’re better off, with more young pitchers with more potential than a year ago.

Sure, there’s old guys. Tom Glavine seems a safe bet to win 13-15 games and make most of his starts. Orlando Hernandez will probably break down right around the time Pedro Martinez is ready to come back, so you kind of have to count them as one guy, and maybe pencil them in for 12 wins. But after that, it gets kind of exciting.

John Maine showed during the playoffs what kind of pitcher he can be and don’t underestimate how much confidence and focus gained during those outings could improve his game. Oliver Perez showed his heart and fastball come back to life, after escaping the Pirates’ pitching gulag (I for one can’t wait to see how Perez’ numbers stack up against Zito’s at the end of 2007 — now that Perez has shown he can pitch in the postseason, something Zito never quite mastered).

Were those all the arms lying around, then yes, it might be worrisome. But behind the those four (three guys and two halves) there is a great mix of kids and young veterans around. First off, there’s Phil Humber, who appears to be largely recovered from Tommy John surgery. He’s my pre-pitchers and catchers pick to be the fifth starter coming out of spring training. This comes from talking to a few people around baseball and some observations. Of course, right in the mix is Mike Pelfrey, who seems to have all the earmarks of a future ace, if he can start throwing his breaking ball for strikes. It’s that last issue that might get Pelfrey a few weeks in AAA to work it out — but he’s a fairly solid option if someone gets hurt in Flushing.

But wait, there’s more: Dave Williams, Jason Vargas, Alay Soler, and Jorge Sosa as guys who could be called on to start. In a pinch both Scott Schoeneweis and Jason Standridge have history as starters and of course, there’s still Aaron Heilman.

And if that’s not enough, there are a couple of kids who look to be comers: Kevin Mulvey made his pro debut at AA Binghamton last summer and impressed many. Some think he might have a quick run through the minors and be ready by midseason. Michael Devaney is another guy who could move quickly. You’ll want to keep an eye on Adam Bostick, too, a hard-throwing lefty likely to start at Binghamton this season. Not for 2007, but lurking as the best of a very good crop of pitching prospects is Deolis Guerra, who despite not turning 18 until the season is two weeks old, will start at St. Lucie and could rise quickly.

A year ago, I took Mets’ GM Omar Minaya to task because he seemed to be rolling the dice on the 2006 season and was not worried about who would be pitching for this team in 2008 and 2009. Since then, he has fully restocked the upper levels of the farm system through astute trades. As good as this team is now, it's going to get better in 2008 and 2009, something that should have every Mets' fan excited.

It’s pretty clear Minaya is not going to give away the farm, or even Lastings Milledge, for the likes of Joe Blanton and certainly not the fragile Rich Harden (who couldn’t be had for less than Milledge, Heilman and Pelfrey and Minaya isn’t that dumb).

And even if the worst-case scenario plays out an somehow all the old guys get hurt and all the kids fail, the Mets will still be in a position to to win. Trachsel pitched like a grandmother and won 15 games last year because of an explosive offense and deep and talented bullpen. And come mid-season, if (and that’s a big if to me) they need another arm, they’ll have excess pen pieces and Milledge around to snag a good but overpriced pitcher from whatever team with high expectation implodes in April and May.

So the message here is this: relax and enjoy this brief visit by winter, knowing the real first day of spring, pitchers and catcher, is only a month away.

The Mets will be just fine and end up in position to win it all this year. This is going to be a good year to be in Flushing (as long as you don’t drive).