Pitching Whew

By Mike McGann
Posted Monday, February 12, 2007

When pitchers and catchers report on Friday, let’s hope the catchers got their offseason rest.

At last count, including new comer Chan Ho Park, pencilled in as anywhere from the No. 3 starter to fighting for the last rotation slot, depending on how depressed the predictor is, there are some 32 pitchers expected in Major League camp in Port St. Lucie on Friday.

It might seem kind of strange for a team coming off a 97-win season — a team that was one hit away from a World Series berth — to be holding open auditions for starting pitchers. Which is a good thing, because they’re not.

If you asked Mets’ General Manager Omar Minaya or manager Willie Randolph who they expected to see in the rotation come April Fools Day, they’d probably talk about opportunities, blah, blah, blah. The fact of the matter, though, is this: barring an injury or someone getting old, both think the rotation will look pretty much like this: Tom Glavine, Orlando Hernandez, Oliver Perez, John Maine and Park.

The remaining starters coming to camp fall into three basic categories: kids not quite ready, but might be soon; possible bullpen long guy/sport starter types; and veteran AAA insurance guys, with 12 pitchers likely to make the Opening Day roster, someone will get the Darren Oliver’s 2006 job.

So let’s take a closer look:

Likely rotation: Glavine, Hernandez. Perez, Maine, Park.

The only one of this group the Mets feel 100 percent confident in is Glavine, who, despite the fact that he will turn 41 during spring training, put up a solid 2006, posting a 15-7 record with a 3.82 ERA, taking over as the staff ace from the ailing Pedro Martinez. Glavine is 10 wins from the magical 300 and seems a safe bet to post at least 12 wins and pitch with his usual sense of professionalism.

Hernandez, when healthy and when on, can still be dominant, but last season that was about one out of three outings. Typically, he wears down and gets hurt, so the Mets have to hope he can keep it going until Martinez returns in July or August.

Perez is the biggest question mark. A guy who went from being the Pirates’ ace on opening day 2006 to getting hammered in AAA by midseason, who then pitched quite well when pressed into service in the postseason. Talent isn’t the issue with this guy, it’s getting his head straight, something Rick Peterson has shown a gift for doing. Perez has the talent to be a dominant, 20-game winner (think a younger Barry Zito with an actual fastball), but he could just as easily find himself pitching in New Orleans by June. How he fares should write the story of this season and whether the Mets need to find pitching help before the trade deadline.

Maine, maybe behind Glavine, is the least of the question marks. He’ll be solid, pitch some good games and give up homers in the sixth and seventh inning that make Mets fans’ cringe. Still, he appeared to grow a lot during the playoffs and as much as the Mets brain trust liked him when they traded for him in the 2006 offseason, they like him that much more now.

Park, put simply is a good No. 5 starter and a lousy No. 3 and a disastrous No. 2. He no longer has the dominant stuff that earned him a $16 million a year contract, but still can crank it up from time to time. Certain days he will be unhittable, others, very hittable. Plagued by illness in 2006, he didn’t get much of chance to show what he could do in the National League, away from Texas’ “death to pitchers” ballpark and should benefit from pitching at Shea. The bottom line: if he stays the No. 5 pitcher, it should be another fun year out in Flushing. If he’s the No. 3 or, God forbid, the No. 2, that would be a good point at which to panic.

The kids: Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Alay Soler and Adam Bostick.

The odds are right now that all five will start the season in New Orleans, although Mulvey might find himself in Binghamton. Pelfrey still looks like a future ace, but the team thinks he needs to work on locating his breaking pitch better. Innings in AAA offer that and the braintrust hopes they don’t need Pelfrey right away. Humber has regained most of his velocity since undergoing Tommy John surgery and some think he might be a better pitcher right now than Pelfrey. Again, the front office would like to see him get more innings at AAA and show he’s completely healthy. Mulvey and Bostick are kind of dark-horse guys but one to keep an eye on as both seem to have a lot of talent. Soler needs to show something in AAA or he’s going to be out of the organization sooner rather than later.

Handicapping the rest: Jorge Sosa has a live arm and will be in the hunt for a bullpen spot, but generally, he hasn’t been good as a starter. Jason Vargas almost belongs in with the kids, he’s just 24, and another guy with skills who hasn’t been able to put it together. He’s probably ticketed to AAA as a project, but will get a look this spring. Scott Shoeneweis will certainly be on the roster, barring injury, but doesn’t appear to be considered for a starting slot. Aaron Sele looks like insurance to fill in at the back of the rotation and has experience as a longman out of the pen. You’d have to pencil him in as the likely spotstarter/longman at the start of spring training.

The Mets would probably rather have four or five stud guys in their rotation, but with a prodigious offense and an insanely deep bullpen, the Mets starters don’t have to be dominant, just passable for this team to return again to the postseason. And if the five pencilled in to start right now don’t pan out, the team has options, both experienced and young — not to mention the return of Pedro Martinez for the front of the rotation around the All-Star break and Dave Williams for the pen or the back of the rotation in June.

At this point, it seems about as likely the Mets might find themselves with extra pitching at the deadline as needing to trade for it. In six weeks, both the front office and the fans should have a much better idea of which is more likely.

Originally published at FlushingUniversity.com