The Big Scary Monster Under The Bed

By Mike McGann
Posted Sunday, March 18, 2007

One of the benefits of having two five year-olds around the house is never having a shortage of monsters under the bed. Thankfully, these illusionary creatures can be dispatched with a quick look under said furniture - or in the closet - and a hug.

Oh, if it were only so simple when it comes to the Mets and the illusionary monsters that haunt their fans. While my kids can be pacified with a quick flick of a flashlight under the bed, it might take strapping on a tank of jellied gasoline to calm the fears of the Flushing Faithful.

Without exaggeration, this has been the winter of hand-wringing over the fate of the starting staff. Which, if you think about it, is kind of funny. In the past few years we’ve seen all kinds of dubious sorts of people expected to compete for the bottom of the Mets’ rotation. Despite that, the wails had been kept to a minimum.

Last season, the Mets used 429 starting pitchers (possibly a slight exaggeration, as there were only 162 games), lost their ace midway through the season, pitched a number of rookies (or near rookies), a gaggle of journeymen, plus Jose Lima and Jeremi Gonzalez, who were each only slightly less frightening than a hockey mask-wearing Michael Myers.

Oh, and the Mets won 97 games, romped through the regular season, and lost in the playoffs despite getting distinctively solid starting pitching from everyone not named Steve Trachsel.

Skip forward to this spring. Tom Glavine is, well, Glavine. Put him down for somewhere between 12 to 15 wins and an ERA just under, at, or near 4. Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez is, well, Duque. Every third game he pitches, he’ll get shelled. Every third game he pitches, he’ll dominate. The other third will be entertaining. He’ll need a mid-season vacation. But he pitches like a champion in the big game.

In theory, those two are the front of the rotation, but that’s not really the truth. John Maine, who with each passing day looks like a guy to break out into stardom, is probably going to be the ace of the staff when all is said and done. Then there’s Oliver Perez. Memo to the National League: Perez’ slider is back so be afraid. Be very, very afraid.

At the bottom of the rotation, the Mets’ fondest hopes have materialized. Mike Pelfrey is making it impossible for the club to send him to New Orleans, meaning that they might be able to deal both Chan Ho Park and or Aaron Sele during the final week of spring training, when other teams realize they have no starting pitching. With Phillip Humber and Jason Vargas, among others, ready to step up (not to mention Dave Williams and Pedro Martinez coming back midseason) the Mets can afford to deal Park and Sele for grade-B prospects from the likes of Washington, Pittsburgh and so on.

In comparison to the last three or four seasons, when it seemed like the Mets were grabbing guys out of the local 7-Eleven to audition for the bottom of the rotation, the idea of having excess — even if Duque isn’t ready, and they have to go with Park — seems pretty good. At the end of the day, the Mets still have the best team in the National League. I look, I compare, I do in-depth statistical analyses, but I can’t find a Senior Circuit team more likely to advance to the World Series.

Speaking of which, the Phillies are improved but have major bullpen problems that could blow up in their collective faces during the stretch run. The Giants have interesting pitching, including their ace, Matt Cain (nope, kids, it’s not Barry Zito), but still have too much age in the lineup that seems likely to fade down the stretch. The Dodgers and Padres will be interesting again, but both teams are flawed. And some team will emerge from the National League Central — but whether it’s the Cards, Astros, Reds or Cubs seems almost impossible to predict at this point.

The truth is, the Mets’ lineup and bullpen are so good, they’d probably still win with Godawful starting pitching. But the starting pitching isn’t Godawful, and could turn out to be pretty solid. Better yet, as the transition to a new, younger staff begins with guys likes Maine, Pelfrey and Humber as anchors.

So relax for a minute and consider what’s going on elsewhere. Does anyone need to say any more than A-Rod? Or, throwing gas on the fire, Carl Pavano? With the Red Sox and Blue Jays bulked up, the Yankees have a lot more to worry about than the Mets do. The Bombers have personality issues, a shaky bullpen, and too many aging veterans in the lineup to be a lock, and yet you don’t hear the same angst crosstown.

I kind of understand why, the roots of which stretch back two decades.

Some of this reminds me about the first week of the 1986 season. The Mets got off to a 2-3 start and panic was in the air. 106 wins later, did Mets’ fans relax? Nope, of course those three weeks, during the National League Championship Series and the World Series, made it kind of hard for anyone to relax. Great baseball was played by the last four teams standing, and once the Mets won the title, the team’s fans finally did relax.

And then came the 1987 season, the start of Dwight Gooden’s public drug issues, injuries and Kevin McReynolds. To their credit, Mets’ fans were able to keep the faith into 1988, assuming the previous year to be a fluke. The loss to the Dodgers in the NLCS, though, was shattering. Never again would Mets’ fans have faith - the kind of faith you see across town - in their team. It doesn’t help that the local media - talk radio (WFAN, I am talking to you) and so on - is biased and plays to Mets’ fans worst fears to help drive ratings and newsstand sales.

Maybe 2007 will be year Mets’ fans learn to relax and enjoy the season. Maybe. But I suspect it might take a run of championships to slay that dragon once and for all.

Thankfully, I have a lot of jellied gasoline to spare.