Throw the @#$% fastball, Billy

By Mike McGann
Posted Thursday, October 19, 2006

Facing a Game 7 in the National League Championship Series should seem like good news all around. But the ninth inning of Game 6 killed the buzz for Mets fans and left them worried, with justification, whether closer Billy Wagner would be able to get it done with the game on the line after again developing an unhealthy attachment to his decidedly mediocre slider.

It's the kind of the monster in the closet fear Mets' fans have known for more than a decade, going back to the heyday of John Franco — something that many thought the November, 2005 signing of the lefty flamethrower would put to an end. But instead of devestating opponents with his deadly fastball, Wagner has fallen in love with his lollypop slider. And Mets' fans have good reason to be worried.

This should have been about John Maine finding the wherewithal to keep his fragile but talented team alive for another day — no small feat for an unheralded rookie who was considered little more than a throw in last Winter. But then the ninth inning came — again — and turned the story to be about fans, scouts, announcers and others pleading: "throw the @#$% fastball, Billy!"

Like last Friday night's meltdown — when Mets' closer Billy Wagner took a 6-6 game in the ninth and turned it into a 9-6 lead for the Cardinals – Wagner again appeared to have developed a fatal attraction to his slider, in lieu of his blazing, 97-MPH fastball. And make no mistake, this isn't a Tom Seaver slider — but rather a pretty mediocre slider that tends to hang up in the strikezone.

Obviously, no pitcher can get people out with one pitch. Even Wagner's 97-MPH heat. But last night — an Friday night — he was pitching backwards, basically using his heater as his change of pace, instead of the slider. And while such methods work well for nibblers and control artists such as Tom Glavine (his breaking stuff and other junk can make his 88 MPH fastball look unhittable, when he mixes them in the right order, as he often has this season), it's flat-out nuts for Wagner to pitch this way. He seems to kind of know it, based on his ghost-written column in the NY Post:

'I just was trying to throw too many breaking balls and bounce them, and I couldn't bounce them. They hung up there and they hit them. My plan of attack with runners on second and third was to make them get themselves out.'

— Billy Wagner, in his column.

As with Friday night, not such a good plan. Slider, Slider, Slider, fastball was less than successful. Just like it wasn't the first couple of months of this season, when Wagner melted down a bit more than was expected. By midseason, he had reverted back to changing off the fastball with the slider, only to switch back in the postseason, with less than wonderful results.

Beyond the fans at Shea Stadium — you could almost hear a chorus of Mets' fans around the country screaming "throw the @#$% fastball, Billy!" over and over again.

So maybe the worry about Oliver Perez starting tonight on short rest — hell, on any rest — isn't the big fear tonight. With manager Willie Randolph's quick hook, a rested Darren Oliver (and although they deny it, the possibility of a few innings by Tom Glavine) and Jeff Suppan's lousy record pitching on the road - the deep dark fear for Mets' fans and maybe the Mets themselves is a Wagner ninth-inning meltdown.
 

Mets' fans learned a lot about John Maine last night, the kind of stuff that has to make you excited for the future. After pitching his way out of first-inning nerves, he handcuffed the Cardinals and thrived under pressure. You have to think that Maine will be part of the rotation next season — and could end up being a very solid middle of the rotation starter, the kind of guy who can win 15 games.

And while it is easy to worry about the future of the starting staff with Pedro Martinez injured, Tom Glavine pushing past 40 (and still, potentially, a free agent), Maine gives you a sense, along with Mike Pelfrey that someone will be around to get people out next April.

The Mets will have to make a lot of decisions in the offseason about who they want to bring back among the current crop of 14 free agents on the roster. Obviously, guys like Steve Trachsel and Victor Zambrano seem to be practically ex-Mets already — and it seems iffy about whether Roberto Hernandez will be back. Tough choices will include Jose Valentin — who most around baseball feel is very unlikely to repeat his 2006 numbers — Orlando Hernandez and Cliff Floyd. The Mets appear likely to pursue Chad Bradford, Guillermo Mota and Darren Oliver, in part to keep the NL's best bullpen intact, but also to give them the option of starting Aaron Heilman when Duaner Sanchez is healthy again.

Also, who stays and who goes will depend on whom the Mets are able to sign and trade for during the offseason. With the need for a righty bat evident — Floyd could be a causality unless the Mets can sign Alfonzo Soriano to play second base. Expect the Mets to be aggressive again this offseason — win or lose tonight.