Mets' 2007 Season Preview, Part III

Posted Sunday, April 1, 2007

The Bench: Once again, it’s a great bench, with Easley, who plays a ton of positions, basically replacing Chris Woodward. The ageless Julio Franco — he hit .273 at age 48 — is joined by Endy Chavez, who showed both his amazing defense and the ability to step into the starting lineup without losing a beat. David Newhan is a Joe McEwing for a new age, playing all of the outfield positions and the infield, with a hard-nosed, gritty style. Lastings Milledge snags a slot here — but the team would probably like him to get regular at-bats in New Orleans, so if he isn't playing, it's hard to see him staying in Flushing.

Outlook: If anything, this is a better, stronger bench than 2006, which is saying something.

Manager/coaching staff: Willie Randolph may not be the best tactical manager in baseball, but he is clearly a gifted leader of men. His teams play hard, get along, and play solid, fundamental baseball. And while he had something of a learning curve with in-game management, he’s shown steady improvement and held his own with “genius” Tony La Russa in the National League Championship Series. Other than Manny Acta, off to witness at least 100 losses as the new manager of the Nationals, the entire staff is back. Fan favorite Howard Johnson is the new first-base coach — is reunited with his favorite pupil, David Wright. Pitching guru Rick Peterson has helped any number of guys fix their windups and mental approach.

Outlook: Randolph and his staff have survived their trial by fire. It’s a good staff and Randolph is clearly an above-average manager.

General manager: You have to admire a guy able to rebuild his pitching staff on the fly, while at the same time bringing in a bunch of high-ceiling young arms. It looked like Omar Minaya had sold the future to win now — dealing a raft of young prospects for veteran talent. But a second flurry of trades — and cunning snags of “throw-in” players not only sured up the current rotation, but added depth and a bevy of guys who should be able to step into the rotation in the coming years.

Maybe it’s easy to be a general manager when you have a $100-million plus budget. Maybe. But Minaya had to deal with more pressure — and a bigger spotlight — and a media machine that remains poised to chew him up at the slightest misstep. Minaya has rebuilt the minor league system and finally, put all of his people in place.

2007 Mets Outlook: Once again, the NL East is the Mets’ to lose. Without doubt, the Phillies are better, and should be in the thick of the Wild Card race. But questions remain about the health of their starting pitching — and to be blunt, Philly’s bullpen is wretched. The Braves have some pitching, not much bullpen, and some of its veterans are starting to show their age. It’s hard to see Atlanta being much better than it was in 2006. The Marlins will be much worse than last year and the Nationals could lose 110 games.

Assuming the Mets return to the playoffs, the big question will be whether they have enough pitching to win a short series. The guess here is that if Pedro Martinez is able to return to anything like his 2005 form, that answer is yes, and you’d have to make the Mets’ the preseason favorite to represent the National League in the World Series. Beyond that, frankly, is a crap shoot.

Prediction: 95-67, 1st place, NL East.

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