Mets' 2007 Season Preview, Part II

Posted Sunday, April 1, 2007

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Bullpen: Well, you can count on closer Billy Wagner, set up men Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoeneweis and Pedro Feliciano. After that, it gets a bit complicated. Although Guillermo Mota, serving a 50-game suspension for using a performance-enhancing substance, seems likely to be a key part of the pen before June — and Duaner Sanchez is now likely gone until August — their absence leaves open some holes. Rookie Joe Smith looks to fill one, while Ambiorix Burgos, will fill the other, although either could be sent out when Pelfrey is added to the 25-man roster. Aaron Sele replaced Darren Oliver in the long man/spot starter role, although Chan Ho Park, who will start in New Orleans, or even Dave Williams, could find themselves in that role at some point, too. Jon Adkins, out of options, looks to be a long shot to make the roster, while Jorge Sosa and will spend time in AAA New Orleans to try to sort out their respective control issues — but both will likely see time in the pen before the season is out. Juan Padilla, recovering from Tommy John surgery, isn’t quite ready, but may be another option before too deep into the season.

Outlook: The pen is probably not as good as last year’s version, and it probably is a bit more unsettled. But to put it in perspective, the guys who aren’t making the team might be better than some Major League pens — so there is both depth and quality. Another plus, with the calvary coming (Mota, Williams and maybe Sanchez, among others) Mets’ skipper Willie Randolph can get away with abusing the troops he takes north, if needed, because they’ll have fresh arms to turn to before the All-Star break. While not as good as last season, this should still be among the best bullpens in baseball.

Lineup: Quibble if you will about the ability to hit lefties, but this team can mash and is the closest thing to an American League lineup in the NL.

Shortstop Jose Reyes seems to be completing the journey from question mark to what may the franchise’s best-ever home grown offensive player. After a big improvement in reaching base last season, mostly by drawing more walks and being more selective at the plate, he posted a solid .300, 19 HR, 81 RBI season — while hitting leadoff and leading the Major Leagues in stolen bases with 64. And the 23-year-old has filled out — and has shown even more power in spring training. Some of the 17 triples he hit in 2006 might become homers in 2007 - a scary possibility for the rest of the National League. Is this the year that Reyes puts up a .330, 30, 95 season with 75 steals and 140 runs scored? There are those who think so, and that Reyes is ready to break out into Albert Pujols’-type superstardom.

Third baseman David Wright, 24 years old, appears to be headed to the no. 2 hole — and while his .311, 26 HR, 116 was his best, his power dropped off seriously in the second half — and his struggles against lefties, whom he toasted during the first half of the season were nothing short of a mystery. Hitting Wright second, while it provides the slugger with protection from Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado, seems an odd role for a guy who stuck out 116 times in 2006. With Reyes on base, he’ll need to take some pitches — but he also might see a lot more fastballs, on which he feasts. It’s an experiment that has some merit, but if it doesn’t work, look for Willie Randolph to shuttle catcher Paul Lo Duca back to the two hole.

Beltran had his first amazing season as a Met, after appearing to press a bit him his first year with the team. Now no longer the focus of the lineup, he’s just another All-Star, and seems happy to be mixed in with the likes of Wright and Delgado. I’d be more inclined to hit him second and Wright third — Beltran strikes out less and thrived previously hitting second — but you can't argue with his numbers: .275, 41 HR, 116 RBI.

Delgado didn’t spend a single day on the Mets’ roster in 2006 completely healthy. he had hand and elbow problems starting in spring training and played in pain the entire season. It was this, and not the “Delgado shift” that caused a disappointing .265 batting average to go along with his 38 HR and 114 RBI. Now completely healthy after offseason surgery, and a new father to boot, he seems likely to have a better 2007 season, which is saying something.

Moises Alou almost became a Met a couple of years back — but decided to to snag a two-year deal to play for his father in San Francisco. Now he finally comes to Flushing — and replaces Cliff Floyd’s bat in the lineup. Although he’ll turn 41 this July, Alou can still hit — when he can stay in the lineup. In just 98 games, he hit .301 with 22 HR and 74 RBI — and almost never strikes out. If he can stay healthy — admittedly, a big if — he could put scary numbers in this lineup.

Shawn Green was once one of the game’s most feared sluggers, a man who has hit more than 300 home runs in his career. Then his power drained away — a few years back. He’s still dangerous, though, having posted .277, 15 HR and 66 RBI split between Arizona and the Mets in 2006. He says he thinks he found a change in his swing since his power days in Toronto and Los Angeles — but he’s struggled this spring and will have to hit to stay in the lineup against lefties, if at all.

Paul Lo Duca posted great numbers for a number two hitter, .318, 5 HR, 49 RBI — and if can come close to those numbers in the seven hole, the Mets’ may really have a scary lineup. Jose Valentin looked like about to be released — when his bat came alive and he vaulted from a bench job to becoming the starting second baseman. His stunning .271, 18 HR and 62 RBI seems unlikely to be repeated in 2007, and frankly he seems to be the biggest question mark in the lineup. Odds are pretty good that Damion Easley will get the lion’s share of starts against lefties — which Valentin really struggled against last season. It wouldn’t be a shock to see 25 HR and 80 RBI between the two, though, as a platoon.

Outlook: Okay, the offense sputtered in the postseason. But during the regular season, it was a wrecking crew, particularly until Xavier Nady was traded. As currently constituted, who do to you pitch to? With the ability to run lefty-righty-lefty through to the eight hole — this lineup is going to eat up opposing bullpens and give opposing managers fits. face it, whether or not having Wright hit second works or not, this team will score a ton of runs again — and again ease the pressure on the pitching staff. Opposing teams will always know no lead is too big for this team to overcome and Mets’ pitchers will be able to go out everyday knowing they do not have to be perfect to win.

(Continued)

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